Research questions: 1. Are 鈥渙ff-the-shelf鈥� CV risk scores accurate, or is 鈥渓ocal鈥� customization needed to achieve good predictive accuracy? 2. Does the statistical model matter? Do more complex models yield more accurate risk scores than simpler ones? Conclusions: 1. 鈥淥ff-the-shelf鈥� FRS and PCS performed relatively well with EHD, but prediction accuracy can be improved by refitting models to 鈥渓ocal鈥� data. The age effect was stronger and the effect of lipid levels weaker in refitted models. 2. PCS performed slightly worse than FRS, indicating that increasing the complexity of the model used to compute the risk score may harm performance in new settings.
